I think weather forecasting has gone downhill

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Why can't our Govn't weather office predict winds accurately past about 12 hours? Earlier today they forecast light for G Strait S of Nanaimo tomorrow. Now it says 10 to 15. This is typical for the last two years.

Why? What has changed? Budget? Policy? Good guy retire? I follow it daily year round for fishing and skiing, and have lost all faith in any forecast past 12 hours. Ironic that they just added the 3 day extended marine last month. Maybe the forecast quality is more accurate in other areas?

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e.html?mapID=02&siteID=14305
 
Ha! I am in EXACTLY the same boat. Got everything rigged up and ready to go with a decent forecast for most of today (I am in Nanaimo) then I wake up this am to 16knots NW and a changed forecast. I usually bounce back between BWD and EC but nothing has been even close lately.

Seems like the forecasts for light winds are always bumped for higher winds...but then again that could be because that is when I notice!?

I'll just sit and wait and hope it smartens up for a few hours today and jump on any chance I get.

Cheers
 
I totally agree. I have been really POed several time this year with sudden changes in the marine forecast, Go to be one night with a good forecast after getting the gear and boat ready.. and WHAMMO!! its blowing 25 SE the next morning. And its happened far more frequently this year than in past years. [V]




20ft Alumaweld Intruder
 
i think we are getting more than we have in the past, but i still think big wave dave is quite close on predictions, way better than the govt predictions and they always ere on the side of caution, that said i went to bed thurs night ticked off due to the high wind forecast for friday and woke up late and looked on the cam no wind, go figure[:0]
 
they used to call small craft warning 365 days a year around juan defuca straight now i think its much better you can make a good guess yourself as to what the wind will be use your own judgement plus what is predicted
 
This morning a commercial seiner told me you'll never catch any fish if you listen to the weather man. I headed out late this afternoon and got lucky NW of Sandheads around 5pm. Landed her solo too. Damn it feels good to flop down on the floor of the boat with a big stinky smiley in the net after a one on one like that.

http://i129.photobucket.com/albums/p216/ssafotekcubgib/aug22008.jpg

Spoon & dodger at 110' on the rigger.

Bee15 I think they stopped using the term small craft warning and replaced it with a "strong wind warning". There is an explanation about that here...
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/mainmenu/faq_e.html#marine3
 
As we live on an island we are on the water every day and live by the marine forecast for most of our business activities. I'd have to say that I am pretty damn impressed by how close they are all the time on the wind calls. The calls are pretty conservative so I interpret them as "the wind will be no worse than" as oppossed to the wind will be" but given what they are responsible for conservative is in their best interest. In our area if it's calling for 15 or less we go out without any concern, if the call is for up to 20 then we go out but pay attention to the signals on the water, if the call is for 25 we stay close to home and if the call is for over 30 we go hiking or mountain biking :-)

Hat's off to the boys who make the calls, I'd imagine calling sun/rain is pretty easy but I can't even begin to figure out how you'd call wind with ocean effects, island effects and all the big inlet inflow/outflows we have in the area....
 
Just to qualify this a bit, I have pretty extensive experience using Environment Canada Forecasts over the last 20 years.

The farther you go into the future, the less accurate the forecast becomes. I'm not too sure what EC was forecasting, but with the big blow and rain we had at the end of the week, and with an area of High Pressure approaching. One should expect NW'ly winds to start. Once that are of High Pressure is upon us, the NW'ly flow will ease.

Forecasts are never downgraded. If they are calling for NW15, and it does not develop, do not expect it to change until the next forecast is issued. If winds were stronger than forecast, a revised forecast would be issued.

A Forecast is only part of the picture. You should also be trying to obtain actual conditions in you area, either on land or from the Light Stations, Buoys, and Automatic stations in the area. Georgia Strait is a big area, the wind itself will not blow the same in a protected area as it will in the open. So in my part of the world, if I wanted to go fish GreenSea, and could stand the pounding up Johnstone Strait, I could guess the water will be relatively flat during a NW'ly, because of the Geography of the area. The ride up will be miserable as hell though.

The forecast is not issued with your fishing trip in mind, it is issued to save your butt. So more often than not you will find yourself frustrated that it never turned out as bad as forecast. A change from 5 knots to 15 knots is not that significant in the bigger picture. The guy in the 16 footer will disagree.

Enviroment Canada came up with a real good guide for Mariner's a while back. It is cheap and I'd recommend getting it. It is called Marine Weather Hazards Manual: West Coast, and you should be able to pick it up in any nautical book section of a store. You should also explore their website and try to get a better understanding of what their forecasts are all about. http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/weather/marine/pacific_e.html.

Too many people rely on "the weather channel", "the radio", or other internet sites. My biggest gripe with EC's site is they do not have the Automatics, Lights, or Buoys, available to the public. I too, get frustrated with their forecasts at times, but a better understanding helps in making better decisions.
 
Yeah no kidding. DANGER DANGER DANGER is not the tone I like to hear when I am anchored in Renfrew for an evenings sleep. The supposed 5kt winds that suddenly turn to gail force is not very comforting.
 
Thanks SIR. I have several sites I use to get all the info I need. What I still do not see on EC's site is the Manned Lighthouse reports.
 
They lie!!! Gale warning for this aftenoon for Johnstone Strait-- slight ripple!!!! When I have wanted to go out this year, the forecasts have been wrong 50% of the time.[V]




20ft Alumaweld Intruder
 
I didn't think there were any manned lighthouses left in Canada anymore....
 
Cape Mudge, Chatham, Pine, Egg, Addenbrooke, Ivory, McInnis, Green, Triple, Cape Beale, Amphitrite, Lennard, Nootka, Quatsino, Cape Scott, Langara, to name a few. They are all manned and report marine and supplemental aviation, that you do not have access to.
 
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