7. Fraser River Sockeye
2018 is a dominant return year for Late run sockeye. A quantitative forecast of Fraser sockeye returns is expected in early 2018. While returns of sockeye on the 2010 and 2014 cycle lines were large, Fraser sockeye returns have been less than the forecast median (p50) over the last 3 cycles with the exception of 2010. As a result, planning will need to consider the potential for a range of potential returns, as well as, specific management measures for protecting and rebuilding conservation units of conservation concern.
Key considerations during consultations will include the use of a window closure to start the season, the escapement plan for Early Stuart, Early Summer, Summer and Late run aggregates and specific management measures for stocks of concern. The Department plans to identify 2 escapement plan options in the draft IFMP for consideration in 2018. Options are usually informed by the escapement plan implemented in the brood year (i.e. 2014) and modifications to account for annual considerations including forecast returns. The table below provides information on the fishery reference points implemented in previous years to inform planning.
For each management aggregate, the escapement plan also identifies a Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER) for cases when there is zero or very low total allowable mortality for a timing group that allows for limited fisheries directed on co-migrating stocks or species. The LAERs have previously been set at 10% for Early Stuart, Early Summer and Summer run timing groups and 20 to 30% for Late run sockeye in past Adams dominant years. As an outcome of the Fraser River Sockeye Spawning Initiative (FRSSI) workshop in late January there may be additional LAER options to consider. In addition, further discussion will be required on the potential for additional terminal harvest opportunities for Fraser sockeye stocks that may return in abundance.
Notes:
a) For Early Summers, Summers, and Lates, the fishery reference points are scaled up annually to account for the expected contribution of unforecasted miscellaneous stocks in the MU.
b) A separate management objective is identified for Cultus Lake sockeye in the salmon IFMP and includes an exploitation rate constraint that limits harvest of Late run sockeye.
c) Beginning in 2010, the maximum allowable exploitation rate for Cultus sockeye was permitted to increase above 20% if conditions were expected to permit continued rebuilding of the population based on inseason information on returns of Late run sockeye and potential numbers of effective spawners.
